![]() ![]() The Beta effect gets even more complicated when tropical cyclones are moving briskly and undergoing rapid changes in intensity. You might think that forecasting the track of tropical cyclones would thus be "child's play." But modeling the Beta effect isn't easy. ![]() ![]() The mean wind in this layer (the "steering wind") accounts for roughly 80% to 90% of the hurricane's motion.Īs I briefly mentioned yesterday, about 10% to 20% of the storm's motion arises from the Beta effect. For example, the steering layer for a hurricane with minimum central pressure between 940 mb and 949 mb spans from 850 mb (roughly 5000 feet) to 250 mb (roughly 35000 feet). For strong hurricanes, the steering layer spans a large portion of the troposphere. Yesterday I talked about the steering of tropical cyclones by the mean wind in a steering layer determined by the system's minimum central pressure (revisit the relevant graphic).
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